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SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered durable growth with GAAP net revenue of $734.1M (+19% YoY), adjusted net revenue of $739.1M (+24% YoY), GAAP net income of $332.5M (boosted by a $271M tax valuation allowance release), and adjusted EPS of $0.05; adjusted EBITDA was $198.0M (27% margin). Mix shifted further to capital-light businesses (Financial Services + Tech Platform = 49% of adjusted net revenue). NIM expanded to 5.91% (+34 bps QoQ).
  • Fee-based revenue set a record at $289.5M (+63% YoY), aided by the Loan Platform Business (LPB) generating $63.2M in fees ($1.1B personal loans originated for third parties) and robust interchange/brokerage. Capital markets activity was the strongest since IPO, with >$3.4B of loan sales/transfers in Q4.
  • Initial 2025 guidance: adjusted net revenue $3.20–$3.275B (+23–26% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $845–$865M (~30% incremental EBITDA margin), GAAP net income $285–$305M, GAAP EPS $0.25–$0.27; Q1 2025 adjusted net revenue $725–$745M and adjusted EBITDA $175–$185M. Assumes ~26% tax rate.
  • Strategic catalysts: accelerated fee-based, higher-ROE mix; tangible LPB scale with new buyer pipelines (initial terms for up to $5B with Blue Owl; expanding Fortress program); tech platform wins (e.g., U.S. Treasury’s Direct Express) with 2026 revenue impact; recurring deposit-led funding advantage (deposits $26.0B, 193–217 bps funding spread vs warehouses).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Record fee-based revenue and diversification: “Financial Services and Tech Platform…made up a record 49% of SoFi's adjusted net revenue,” as SoFi is “not just a lender anymore.”
    • Strong LPB scale and economics: $63.2M in LPB fees on $1.1B third-party personal loan originations in Q4; initial terms for up to $5B with Blue Owl over two years; economics include flat per-loan fees plus origination and servicing fees.
    • Funding and margin strength: Deposits grew to $26.0B with >90% from direct deposit members; NIM rose to 5.91% (up 34 bps QoQ), supported by a ~193 bps deposit vs. warehouse rate advantage in Q4.
  • What Went Wrong

    • Lending margin compression YoY: Lending adjusted contribution margin fell to 58% from 65% YoY (still strong), reflecting mix and market dynamics; Tech Platform revenue growth was modest (+6% YoY).
    • Fair value marks pressured by higher discount rates: Personal loan fair value mark declined ~80 bps QoQ (to 104.9%) as discount rates rose; student loans marked down ~133 bps QoQ for similar reasons.
    • Quality-of-EPS optics: GAAP EPS ($0.29) benefited from a $271M nonrecurring tax valuation allowance release; adjusted EPS was $0.05, a gap that may prompt investor focus on underlying profitability trend.

Financial Results

Consolidated metrics (quarterly; oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total net revenue ($M)$598.6 $697.1 $734.1
Adjusted net revenue ($M)$597.0 $689.4 $739.1
Net income ($M)$17.4 $60.7 $332.5
Diluted EPS ($)$0.01 $0.05 $0.29
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$137.9 $186.2 $197.96
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)23% 27% 27%
Net interest income ($M)$412.6 $431.0 $470.2
Net interest margin (%)5.83% 5.57% 5.91%
Total deposits ($B)$23.0 $24.4 $26.0

Segment performance (quarterly; oldest → newest)

SegmentQ2 2024 Net Rev ($M)Q3 2024 Net Rev ($M)Q4 2024 Net Rev ($M)Q2 2024 Contrib. Profit ($M)Q3 2024 Contrib. Profit ($M)Q4 2024 Contrib. Profit ($M)
Lending$340.7 $396.2 $417.8 $197.9 $238.9 $246.0
Financial Services$176.1 $238.3 $256.5 $55.2 $99.8 $114.9
Technology Platform$95.4 $102.5 $102.8 $31.2 $33.0 $32.1

Key KPIs and credit (quarterly; oldest → newest)

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Members (period end)8,774,236 9,372,615 10,127,323
Total products (period end)12,776,430 13,650,730 14,745,435
Total originations ($B)$5.346 $6.325 $7.178
Personal loan originations ($B)$4.192 $4.892 $5.252
Student loan originations ($B)$0.737 $0.944 $1.349
Home loan originations ($B)$0.417 $0.490 $0.577
90-day PL delinquency rate (on-balance sheet)0.57% 0.55%
PL annualized charge-off rate3.52% 3.37%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted net revenueFY 2025N/A (initial)$3.200–$3.275B New
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025N/A (initial)$845–$865M; ~30% incremental margin New
GAAP net incomeFY 2025N/A (initial)$285–$305M New
GAAP EPSFY 2025N/A (initial)$0.25–$0.27; ~26% tax rate New
Tangible book value growthFY 2025N/A (initial)+$550–$575M New
Total capital ratioFY 2025N/A (initial)>15% New
Adjusted net revenueQ1 2025N/A (initial)$725–$745M New
Adjusted EBITDAQ1 2025N/A (initial)$175–$185M New
GAAP net incomeQ1 2025N/A (initial)$30–$40M New
GAAP EPSQ1 2025N/A (initial)$0.03 New

Notes: FY25 guidance assumes ~1.5+ rate cuts, GDP +1–2%, ~5% unemployment, normalized credit spreads and stable consumer credit.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Loan Platform Business (LPB)LPB scaling; Q2: LPB grew 66% YoY; Q3: $55.6M LPB fees on ~$1.0B third-party originations; $2B Fortress agreement in Oct. [32 not cited]Q4: $63.2M LPB fees on $1.1B third-party originations; initial terms with Blue Owl for up to $5B over 2 years; fees include per-loan, origination, and servicing components. Accelerating scale, deeper buyer pipeline
Tech Platform (Galileo/Technisys)Q2–Q3: steady growth (+9–14% YoY), new products and client wins; positioning as “AWS of financial services.” Major wins: U.S. Treasury Direct Express, large consumer finance provider (top-10 client by revenue on transition), co-branded hotel rewards debit; revenue impact mostly 2026. Strategic wins; revenue lag to 2026
Funding & NIMQ2 NIM 5.83%; Q3 NIM 5.57%; deposit growth to $24.4B; 220 bps deposit vs warehouse spread. Q4 NIM 5.91% (+34 bps QoQ); deposits $26.0B; ~193 bps deposit vs warehouse rate advantage; plan to manage deposits vs loan growth; maintain >5% NIM. Improving NIM; sustained funding advantage
Credit performanceQ2: delinquencies peaked in March; Q3: PL 90-day delinquency 0.57%, PL NCO 3.52%; vintages below 7–8% tolerance. Q4: PL 90-day delinquency 0.55%, PL NCO 3.37%; vintages continue trending below 7–8% tolerance. Stable-to-improving credit
Product & brandQ2: Zelle added; Invest alts, robo; 41% member growth YoY; Q3: two credit cards launched; brand awareness +40% YoY. SoFi Plus subscription launch (broadening access to premium benefits); unaided brand awareness >7%; invest push; alt assets expansion. Broadening engagement & monetization

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and mix: “SoFi is not just a lender anymore…[Financial Services and Tech Platform] accounted for 47% of our adjusted net revenue [in 2024].”
  • LPB economics: “All…deals…consist of…a flat fee per loan…we also charge origination fees…[and] a modest servicing fee that gets capitalized…”
  • Outlook and investment cadence: “In 2025, we plan to manage towards an incremental EBITDA margin of around 30% as we reinvest in the business to drive…25% [revenue] growth… and strong returns.”
  • Funding advantage: “There is [a] 193 bps difference between the interest we pay on deposits and…warehouse lines…~$500M in annualized interest expense savings.”
  • Tech Platform scale: “We [were] selected by the U.S. Department of Treasury for Direct Express…[and] signed a large U.S.-based financial services provider…[expected to be] a top 10 client…in early 2026.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Deposits/APY/NIM: Management aims to keep SoFi Money a top-tier APY offering while managing funding costs; deposit growth will be balanced with asset-liability management, with NIM guided to remain >5% “for the foreseeable future.”
  • Medium-term EPS/margins: Reaffirmed confidence in long-term 30% EBITDA and 20% net income margins; 2025 plan targets ~30% incremental EBITDA margin to fund durable growth.
  • LPB durability: Strong visibility into loan buyer demand with commitments for 2025; diversified monetization routes (balance sheet, whole loan, ABS, referrals) mitigate capital-market volatility.
  • Segment growth (2025 view): Financial Services +60–65% YoY, Lending low double-digits to teens, Tech Platform low double-digits to teens; FS margin expansion with LPB margins ~50%+.
  • Invest expansion and crypto: Focus on brand awareness and feature breadth; prepared to expand aggressively into crypto across the platform as regulatory clarity emerges.

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of report due to API limits, so we cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus. We have therefore not included estimate comparisons for this quarter using S&P Global data.
  • Reported results and guidance in this recap are sourced from SoFi’s Q4 2024 8‑K earnings press release and earnings call.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix shift is real: Fee-based businesses (Financial Services + Tech Platform) reached 49% of adjusted net revenue in Q4; record $289.5M fee revenue underscores higher-ROE trajectory.
  • LPB is scaling with multi-year visibility: $63.2M fees in Q4, $1.1B third-party originations, and initial terms with Blue Owl for up to $5B over two years, complementing Fortress; expect continued fee momentum.
  • Funding and margin advantage persist: Deposit-led funding base and favorable betas support >5% NIM and significant interest expense savings vs. warehouse lines.
  • Credit stable-to-improving: PL 90-day delinquencies down to 0.55% and PL NCOs down to 3.37%; vintages still below 7–8% lifetime loss tolerance.
  • 2025 setup: 23–26% adjusted revenue growth and ~30% incremental EBITDA margin guide signal continued top-line momentum while reinvesting for growth (SoFi Plus, Invest, SMB and Protect).
  • Tech Platform wins are strategic, with revenue lag: Direct Express and other large-brand wins imply higher-quality, more predictable revenue from 2026.
  • Watch quality-of-EPS vs adjusted metrics: Tax-related nonrecurring benefits boosted GAAP EPS in Q4; adjusted EPS trajectory and margin execution remain key for valuation.

Appendix: Additional Context and Data Points

  • Capital markets: Q4 closed $950M whole-loan PL sales at ~105.5%, a $525M private ABS at ~102.3%, $507M home loan sales at ~100.7%, and $90M late-stage delinquent PL sales; >$3.4B aggregate loan sales/transfers.
  • Securitization momentum: Announced a $525M personal loan securitization with PGIM Fixed Income (closed Q4 2024), following a $350M PGIM investment in May 2024.
  • Regulatory capital: Total capital ratio 16.2% at year-end; tangible book value per share $4.47 (up from $3.61 YoY).