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SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered durable growth with GAAP net revenue of $734.1M (+19% YoY), adjusted net revenue of $739.1M (+24% YoY), GAAP net income of $332.5M (boosted by a $271M tax valuation allowance release), and adjusted EPS of $0.05; adjusted EBITDA was $198.0M (27% margin). Mix shifted further to capital-light businesses (Financial Services + Tech Platform = 49% of adjusted net revenue). NIM expanded to 5.91% (+34 bps QoQ).
- Fee-based revenue set a record at $289.5M (+63% YoY), aided by the Loan Platform Business (LPB) generating $63.2M in fees ($1.1B personal loans originated for third parties) and robust interchange/brokerage. Capital markets activity was the strongest since IPO, with >$3.4B of loan sales/transfers in Q4.
- Initial 2025 guidance: adjusted net revenue $3.20–$3.275B (+23–26% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $845–$865M (~30% incremental EBITDA margin), GAAP net income $285–$305M, GAAP EPS $0.25–$0.27; Q1 2025 adjusted net revenue $725–$745M and adjusted EBITDA $175–$185M. Assumes ~26% tax rate.
- Strategic catalysts: accelerated fee-based, higher-ROE mix; tangible LPB scale with new buyer pipelines (initial terms for up to $5B with Blue Owl; expanding Fortress program); tech platform wins (e.g., U.S. Treasury’s Direct Express) with 2026 revenue impact; recurring deposit-led funding advantage (deposits $26.0B, 193–217 bps funding spread vs warehouses).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Record fee-based revenue and diversification: “Financial Services and Tech Platform…made up a record 49% of SoFi's adjusted net revenue,” as SoFi is “not just a lender anymore.”
- Strong LPB scale and economics: $63.2M in LPB fees on $1.1B third-party personal loan originations in Q4; initial terms for up to $5B with Blue Owl over two years; economics include flat per-loan fees plus origination and servicing fees.
- Funding and margin strength: Deposits grew to $26.0B with >90% from direct deposit members; NIM rose to 5.91% (up 34 bps QoQ), supported by a ~193 bps deposit vs. warehouse rate advantage in Q4.
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What Went Wrong
- Lending margin compression YoY: Lending adjusted contribution margin fell to 58% from 65% YoY (still strong), reflecting mix and market dynamics; Tech Platform revenue growth was modest (+6% YoY).
- Fair value marks pressured by higher discount rates: Personal loan fair value mark declined ~80 bps QoQ (to 104.9%) as discount rates rose; student loans marked down ~133 bps QoQ for similar reasons.
- Quality-of-EPS optics: GAAP EPS ($0.29) benefited from a $271M nonrecurring tax valuation allowance release; adjusted EPS was $0.05, a gap that may prompt investor focus on underlying profitability trend.
Financial Results
Consolidated metrics (quarterly; oldest → newest)
Segment performance (quarterly; oldest → newest)
Key KPIs and credit (quarterly; oldest → newest)
Guidance Changes
Notes: FY25 guidance assumes ~1.5+ rate cuts, GDP +1–2%, ~5% unemployment, normalized credit spreads and stable consumer credit.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy and mix: “SoFi is not just a lender anymore…[Financial Services and Tech Platform] accounted for 47% of our adjusted net revenue [in 2024].”
- LPB economics: “All…deals…consist of…a flat fee per loan…we also charge origination fees…[and] a modest servicing fee that gets capitalized…”
- Outlook and investment cadence: “In 2025, we plan to manage towards an incremental EBITDA margin of around 30% as we reinvest in the business to drive…25% [revenue] growth… and strong returns.”
- Funding advantage: “There is [a] 193 bps difference between the interest we pay on deposits and…warehouse lines…~$500M in annualized interest expense savings.”
- Tech Platform scale: “We [were] selected by the U.S. Department of Treasury for Direct Express…[and] signed a large U.S.-based financial services provider…[expected to be] a top 10 client…in early 2026.”
Q&A Highlights
- Deposits/APY/NIM: Management aims to keep SoFi Money a top-tier APY offering while managing funding costs; deposit growth will be balanced with asset-liability management, with NIM guided to remain >5% “for the foreseeable future.”
- Medium-term EPS/margins: Reaffirmed confidence in long-term 30% EBITDA and 20% net income margins; 2025 plan targets ~30% incremental EBITDA margin to fund durable growth.
- LPB durability: Strong visibility into loan buyer demand with commitments for 2025; diversified monetization routes (balance sheet, whole loan, ABS, referrals) mitigate capital-market volatility.
- Segment growth (2025 view): Financial Services +60–65% YoY, Lending low double-digits to teens, Tech Platform low double-digits to teens; FS margin expansion with LPB margins ~50%+.
- Invest expansion and crypto: Focus on brand awareness and feature breadth; prepared to expand aggressively into crypto across the platform as regulatory clarity emerges.
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of report due to API limits, so we cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus. We have therefore not included estimate comparisons for this quarter using S&P Global data.
- Reported results and guidance in this recap are sourced from SoFi’s Q4 2024 8‑K earnings press release and earnings call.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix shift is real: Fee-based businesses (Financial Services + Tech Platform) reached 49% of adjusted net revenue in Q4; record $289.5M fee revenue underscores higher-ROE trajectory.
- LPB is scaling with multi-year visibility: $63.2M fees in Q4, $1.1B third-party originations, and initial terms with Blue Owl for up to $5B over two years, complementing Fortress; expect continued fee momentum.
- Funding and margin advantage persist: Deposit-led funding base and favorable betas support >5% NIM and significant interest expense savings vs. warehouse lines.
- Credit stable-to-improving: PL 90-day delinquencies down to 0.55% and PL NCOs down to 3.37%; vintages still below 7–8% lifetime loss tolerance.
- 2025 setup: 23–26% adjusted revenue growth and ~30% incremental EBITDA margin guide signal continued top-line momentum while reinvesting for growth (SoFi Plus, Invest, SMB and Protect).
- Tech Platform wins are strategic, with revenue lag: Direct Express and other large-brand wins imply higher-quality, more predictable revenue from 2026.
- Watch quality-of-EPS vs adjusted metrics: Tax-related nonrecurring benefits boosted GAAP EPS in Q4; adjusted EPS trajectory and margin execution remain key for valuation.
Appendix: Additional Context and Data Points
- Capital markets: Q4 closed $950M whole-loan PL sales at ~105.5%, a $525M private ABS at ~102.3%, $507M home loan sales at ~100.7%, and $90M late-stage delinquent PL sales; >$3.4B aggregate loan sales/transfers.
- Securitization momentum: Announced a $525M personal loan securitization with PGIM Fixed Income (closed Q4 2024), following a $350M PGIM investment in May 2024.
- Regulatory capital: Total capital ratio 16.2% at year-end; tangible book value per share $4.47 (up from $3.61 YoY).